Indian shares are expected to rise this week, tracking Asian peers, after the U.S. Federal Reserve forecast steady growth and a potential pause in rate hikes, while sentiment was positive ahead of economic data this week. India is due to post gross domestic product data for the October-December quarter on Wednesday and fiscal deficit and manufacturing data are also expected in this week. The market is trying to consolidate right now; it had a fairly significant fall, the biggest of the last 12-14 months on the way down from 11,200 to about 10,300 levels. It could be expected a range of maybe 10,300 as the base, 10,700-10,800 as the top end of the range because markets never fall in a single line, they will give a bounce back and consolidation phases.
The market has bottomed out for the time being and will discount in general the NPAs (non-performing assets) of state-run banks, Corrections could happen, but overall the sentiment is positive. Investors will look to the RBI policy meet in April and the March-quarter corporate results. Asian shares were up, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan 0.73 percent higher. For the moment, there are some headwinds which are causing the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to get quite uncomfortable, they have been selling through the month and that might continue going forward. So India is under performing in a sense and that is something which FIIs are very cognizant about but the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) money still hasn’t dried up completely. The market is in a midst of a pullback, how strong that pullback is and then it could be decided whether this range will hold on for the moment or not.