Money Market– Raunaq Singh

images-1-4-1-300x134Expect market to open on a soft note. Rising oil price and USDINR is a major concern in the market despite a RBIT kept unchanged interest rate. Nifty nosedived nearly 15% from the all time high. US market declined over half percent after reported better than expected pay roll data on ahead of further rate hike. Asian markets like Hong Kong and KOSPI Declined 0.3%, (Japan market close today). PBOC cuts reserve ratio for some banks – The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the required reserve ratio for some lenders by 1%, effective from Oct. 15.

Brent Crude fell to $84/bbl, declined 2% after Saudi hiked oil production and expectation of US Government may relax oil import of few countries from Iran despite sanction. It may positive for our market.

US and China meeting will be held today of recent trade war issue – Trader watch on US China trade war result outcome.

Expect intra-day volatility continue in the market. Market trend will determine by the USDINR and Brent Crude price. Traders keep in eye of USDINR and Brent crude trends before taking any long and short position. Avoid bargain hunting till the clear trend emerge. Among the global factor, trade war and Rising US Bond Yield (Yesterday US bond yield touched 7-year high) also important factor in the market.

Q2 results will commence from today. Tata Elaxi will be announce Q2 result today. Bandhan Bank (Wednesday) and TCS (Thursday). Zee and Kotak Mahindra Bank will be announce this week. Important Economy data like CPI and IIP data will be announce on Friday.

RBI keeps interest rate unchanged at 6.5% and CRR 4% ON Friday – Monetary policy committee surprised markets by keeping interest rates unchanged at 6.5% while street expectation of 25bps hike interest rate. GDP growth for 1Q lowered to 7.4% vs 7.5% in the August resolution.

USDINR crossed above 74 after on Friday after the RBI statement that the USDINR trend will determine by the demand supply. USDINR surged to intra-day high of 74.22 after its statement and finally closed at 73.78. However, positive factor that the 10-Year G-Sec Yield fell to 7.03% after a high of 7.12% yesterday.

Yesterday NBFC stocks declined 7-12% after the RBI Statement that the NBFC took money for short term basis but deploy in the long term basis. It has been a mismatch between asset and liability. IL&FS incident has on the similar case. Traders caution on NBFC stocks. It may not be ruled out further weakness on NBFC stock. The RBI is looking to strengthen norms to address the mismatch in assets and liabilities of non-bank lenders after defaults by Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services triggered liquidity concerns.

The Election Commission announced five state election between November 12 to December 7 and final result will be on December 11 of all five states. Among the states are Chhattisgarh (12h and 20th Nov), Madhya Pradesh (28th Nov) , Mizoram (28th Nov), Rajasthan (7th Dec) and Telangana (7th Dec). – It is a important factor that the how much capture by the ruling party ahead of 2019 election.

Avas Financial will be listing today – issue price at Rs821 a share. It has been fully subscribed.

Watch on L&T Finance – Company’s board meeting today to issue Rs2.50bn through NCD.

HDFC Bank says advance stood Rs7.51tn end of September vs Rs7.09tn end of June, deposit Rs8.34tn end of September vs Rs8.06tn end of June, Casa ratio at 42% end of September vs 41.7% end of June. HDFC Bank purchase RsRs60.6bn loan from parent HDFC in 2Q – Company reported strong CASA growth, increased deposit and advance growth – We are positive on long term prospective

Dilip Buildcon receives letter of acceptance for Metro rail projects worth Rs4.73bn – Positive news but current scenario avoid on the stock.

Results this week– Tata Elxsi (Monday), Bandhan Bank (Wednesday), TCS (Thursday), Karnataka Bank (Friday)

India major economy data this week – CPI and IIP data on Friday at 5.30PM.

Power Mech Projects has bagged orders worth Rs5.30bn – Positive

DCB Bank raises 1-Year MCLR rate to 10.62% from 10.40% – Positive after rising MCLR rate

Goa Carbon has reported net loss at Rs13bn in Q2FY18 against profit of Rs137mn in previous quarter – Poor result

Supreme Court stays Competition Commission Penalty on Cement Companies – The Supreme Court stayed Competition Commission of India’s Rs 6,300 crore penalty on cement companies for cartelisation. National Company Law Appellate Tribunal had turned down plea filed by cement companies challenging the antitrust regulator’s 2016 decision to penalize the manufacturers for cartelization – No impact on Cement stocks

Steel Strips bags €6mn order from OPEL Germany – The order comprises of more than 650,000 wheels to be shipped in period of 6 years starting October 2019.

Cochin Shipyard share buy-back meeting on 17th October.

Cadila gets final US FDA approval for exemestane tablets – Positive for Cadil

IDBI Bank – LIC acquired 33.98 crore shares of the bank via way of preferential allotment and raised its stake from 7.98 percent to 14.89 percent – Merger with LIC may positive for IDBI Bank – It is a bail out of IDBI after a mountain NPA – Avoid.

KPIT Founder proficient has pledged 4.86% stake vs 3.7% earlier – News is negative after promoters rising pledge shares.

HCG (Health Global Enterprises) is First in India to Treat Cancer Patients Using the Accuray Radixact® System – Positive for HCG, HCG is a pharma company with Rs18bn market cap , engaged of medical and surgical hospital business. Company reported FY17 and FY18 EBITDA at 1.18bn and Rs1.2bn respectively

Reliance Health Insurance gets final approval from IRDAI to start operations – Reliance Health Insurance, a wholly owned subsidiary of Reliance Capital, announced that it has received R3 approval from IRDAI for its new health insurance business. The new company will commence operations by the December quarter of 2018 – Positive for Reliance Capital.

Travel services firm Thomas Cook India Friday said its board has given nod for the acquisition of a 24 per cent stake in Mumbai-based travel tech start-up ‘TravelJunkie Solutions’ by its arm TC Tours Ltd. – Avoid on the stock, rising USDINR is a concern of tour and travel industry.

Vivimed Labs has received an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the USFDA for its facility in Cuernavaca at Mexico – Positive

Board Meetings – L&T Finance, Tata Elxsi.


Raunak Singh 9830774198

Raunak Singh


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